آینده ساختار رشته ها و گروه های آموزشی دانشگاهی ایران در فضای انقلاب صنعتی چهارم: یک رویکرد سناریویی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
حامد تارین 1
یداله مهرعلیزاده 2
1 دانش آموخته دکتری مدیریت آموزشی گروه علوم تربیتی، دانشکده علوم تربیتی و روانشناسی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران
2 استاد گروه علوم تربیتی و روانشناسی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران
10.61838/kman.irphe.30.1.7
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر به منظور تدوین سناریوهایی برای آیندۀ ساختار رشته ها و گروه های آموزشی دانشگاهی ایران در فضای انقلاب صنعتی چهارم انجام شده است. رویکرد پژوهش حاضر آمیخته، از نظر هدف کاربردی –توسعه ای و از حیث روش گردآوری داده ها، توصیفی-تحلیلی و با استفاده از روش سناریونویسی می باشد. جامعه آماری شامل دو طیف؛ اسناد علمی و افراد خبره از مؤسسه ها و دانشگاه های دولتی شهر تهران بود. روش نمونه گیری در بخش کیفی از نمونه گیری غیراحتمالی هدفمند ملاک محور و در بخش کمی از نوع در دسترس استفاده گردید. در گردآوری داده ها از روش داده کاوی و مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته و در بخش  تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از روش های تحلیل مضمون، روش سناریونویسی و نرم افزار کیفی میک مک استفاده به عمل آمد. یافته ها نشان از 16 عامل بوده که پس از تحلیل ساختاری عوامل و وزن دهی عدم قطعیت ها با روش میزان اهمیت و اجماع، دوگانه های «تولید دانش فردی و شبکه ای» و «نظام کار و اشتغال فرسوده و فناورانه» حائز بالاترین امتیاز شدند. از برهم کنش این دو عدم قطعیت 4 سناریو: ساختار شبکه ای صلاحیت گرا با نماد هشتک؛ ساختار پاسخگوی تجارت گرا با نماد کاسب؛ ساختار وظیفه ای دانش گرا با نماد کولاژ؛ و ساختار جزیره ای آموزش گرا با نماد مکتب به دست آمد. بدین ترتیب، وضعیت موجود ساختار رشته ها و گروه های آموزشی دانشگاهی در ایران در برابر تحولات انقلاب صنعتی چهارم در طیفی از تحول (سناریوی هشتک) تا فروپاشی (سناریوی مکتب) قرار دارد. دانشگاه ها در آینده نزدیک (بین 5 تا 10 سال) شاهد بحران تولید دانش و مهارت، صلاحیت و شایستگی مداری برای دانش آموختگان دانشگاهی و آماده نمودن آنها برای ورود به بازارهای نوین هستند. بنابراین؛ گذار از ساختار جزیره ای آموزش گرا به ساختار شبکه ای صلاحیت گرا توصیه و پیشنهاد می گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The future studies of the structure of academic disciplines and educational groups in Iran in the atmosphere of the fourth industrial revolution: a scenario approach

نویسندگان English

Hamed Tarin 1
Yadolah Mehralizadeh 2
1 Faculty of Educational Sciences, Department of Educational Management, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Educational Sciences, Department of Educational Management, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده English

The present research was conducted in order to develop scenarios for the future structure of academic disciplines and educational groups in Iran in the atmosphere of the fourth industrial revolution. The approach of the current research is mixed, in terms of practical-developmental purpose and in terms of data collection method, it is descriptive-analytical and using the scenario writing method. The statistical population includes two spectrums; Scientific documents and experts were from public institutions and universities in Tehran. The sampling method was used in the qualitative part of non-probability criterion-based targeted sampling and in the quantitative part of the available type. The sampling method was used in the qualitative part of non-probability criterion-based targeted sampling and in the quantitative part of the available type. The findings showed 16 factors that after the structural analysis of the factors and the weighting of the uncertainties with the method of importance and consensus, the duals of "individual and network knowledge production" and "worn and technological work and employment system" got the highest score. From the interaction of these two uncertainties, 4 scenarios: competent oriented network structure with hashtag symbol; Responsive business-oriented structure with Tradesman symbol; Knowledge oriented task structure with collage symbol; And the educational island structure was achieved with the symbol of the school. In this way, the current situation of the structure of university courses and educational groups in Iran is against the developments of the fourth industrial revolution in a spectrum from transformation (hashtag scenario) to collapse (school scenario). In the near future, universities are witnessing a crisis in the production of knowledge and skills, competence and orbital competence for university graduates and preparing them to enter new markets. So; It is recommended and suggested to transition from the education-oriented island structure to the competent oriented network structure.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

future studies
organizational structure
disciplines and educational groups
scenario writing
fourth industrial revolution
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  • تاریخ دریافت 29 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری 04 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش 10 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 اردیبهشت 1403