نویسندگان
1 دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه
2 دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه
3 کارشناس ارشد رشته اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه
چکیده
مهاجرت افراد تحصیلکرده و متخصص از کشورهای کمتر توسعه یافته به کشورهای صنعتی پیشرفته همواره آثار زیانبار اقتصادی، علمی، فرهنگی و اجتماعی برای این کشورها به جای گذاشته است. لذا، مسئله مهاجرت این قشر مورد توجه سیاستگذاران است و سیاستگذاریهای مختلفی برای جذب و حفظ آنها صورت میگیرد. جمهوری اسلامی ایران طی دهههای اخیر از این مشکل مستثنا نبوده است. ادامه روند مهاجرت بر خلاف سیاستهای دولت است و دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی مطلوب را با مشکل مواجه میکند. بنابراین، با توجه به اهمیت پیامدهای ناشی از مهاجرت، در مطالعه حاضر آثار کلان و بخشی مهاجرت نیروی کار از کشور با استفاده از مدل پروژه تحلیلهای تجارت جهانی از مدلهای تعادلعمومی محاسبه پذیر بررسی شده است. با این هدف دو سناریوی افزایش مهاجرت نیروی کار ماهر و غیر ماهر بهصورت جداگانه تعریف شده است. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که مهاجرت نیروی کار، اعم از ماهر و غیر ماهر، موجب کاهش رشد اقتصادی، سرمایهگذاری و نرخ بازگشت سرمایه در سطح کلان میشود. این امر همچنین تولید بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی را کاهش میدهد. از سویی، افزایش مهاجرت نیروی کار ماهر سطح دستمزدهای نیروی کار را در کل افزایش میدهد و در مقابل، قیمت سرمایه را که شامل سرمایه فیزیکی، منابع طبیعی و زمین است، کاهش میدهد. بهعلاوه، با افزایش مهاجرت نیروی کار ماهر تقاضای عوامل تولید در بخشهای کشاورزی و صنعت کاهش مییابد و با توجه به امکان جانشینی عوامل تولید، این امر موجب انتقال سرمایه و نیروی کار غیر ماهر به بخش خدمات میشود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of labor immigration: application of CGE model Â
نویسندگان [English]
- Hassan Heidari 1
- Narmin Davoudi 2
- Farzaneh Talebi 3
1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
2 PhD Student, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
3 Master of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University
چکیده [English]
The immigration of educated and skilled people from less developed to industrial countries, have always harmful effects on economy, science, culture and society of less developed countries. For this reason, the problem of immigration, attract more attention of policy makers and leads to impose the variety of policies in order to attract and keep labor in the country. Islamic Republic of Iran has not been exceptional from this problem in past decades. Of course, continuing the process of immigration is contradictory to the government policies, so achieving to the desired economic growth will be difficult. Therefore, considering the importance of effects of immigration, this study investigates macroeconomic and sectoral effects of labor immigration, applying a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Following this objective, two scenario of increase in skilled and unskilled labor immigration were defined. The results showed that both skilled and unskilled labor immigration, lead to reduction in economic growth, investment and capital return. This also reduces the production of various economic sectors. On the other hand, more immigration in skilled labor leads to more wages of labor, and in contrast, less prices of capital including physical, natural resources and land. Furthermore, increase in skilled labor immigration causes production factors of agriculture and industry demand to decline, and according to possibility of production factors substitution, this
leads to capital and unskilled labor transfer in the service sector.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Immigration
- skilled and unskilled labor
- GTAP
- labor demand
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