تحلیل دینامیک اشتغال و آموزش‌های مهارتی استان البرز در چارچوب سند آمایش

Economic and employment developments in Alborz Province over the past decade have highlighted the need to reconsider the skills training system. This study was conducted to analyze the dynamics of economic structure, employment, and skills training within the framework of the provincial spatial planning document to identify alignment among these domains and existing gaps.
The research is applied in nature and adopts an analytical–descriptive design with a mixed-methods approach (quantitative and qualitative). The quantitative component analyzes employment and skills training data, while the qualitative component examines documents and policies within the Alborz provincial spatial planning framework. Data were collected from official sources, including provincial statistical yearbooks, labor force survey reports, the spatial planning document, and related records. The analysis was conducted in four stages: calculating sectoral shares of value added and employment, assessing alignment between them, analyzing changes in skills training, and identifying shortages or surpluses of training programs. Validity was ensured through official sources, and reliability was confirmed by examining ten-year trends and comparing data with adjacent years.
The results showed that the economic structure of Alborz Province has shifted from a service-oriented to an industry-oriented pattern, reflected in the employment structure. However, the skills training system has not fully aligned with labor market needs, and a significant gap exists between training supply and actual employment demand, particularly in the industrial sector; although industry accounts for more than 40 percent of employment, only about half of its skill needs are met by existing training. To achieve spatial planning objectives, skills training should be directed toward small and medium-sized enterprises, semi-advanced technologies, and modern industrial skills. In the services sector, emphasis should be placed on improving program quality and expanding ICT-based services, while in agriculture, strengthening specialized training such as smart agriculture, greenhouse production, and agro-processing is important for enhancing productivity. A comparison of employment and skills training structures indicates misalignment, with surplus training in services and shortages in industry and agriculture, reflecting spatial planning challenges. The main contribution of this research lies in integrating economic, employment, and skills training data to support improved skill development planning.