عنوان مقاله [English]

An optimization model for budget allocation among the universities in Iran in the Second Five Year Plan

چکیده [English]

Esraphil kasraee (Ph.D.),  University of Tehran
This article is an application of Thomas L. Saaty's analytical hierarchical technique and his work done on Eigen Value and Eigen Vector. The process developed here is an algebric, ratio scale approach to decision making with functional and structural dependencies to deal with a multilevel and multicomponent system of criteria to rank a number of alternatives in order of impor.tance or preference. Indeed, the purpose of this article is to allocate scarcity or abundance of resources among alternatives, in which the number of alternatives and the score of each alternative exert influence on the score of all other alternatives. A hierarchy is a particular case of the system with structural dependencies but functional independencies. The assessment of tangible and intangible factors are made in the form of paired comparisons as to the most likely ( or important) outcome that results from factors, included in the various levels of hierarchy. By synthesizing the relative likelihood ( or importance) of the elements in different levels of the hierarchy, one can determine the best course of action in the face of an uncertain future represented in the form of different scenarios. This process requires the use of valid information for the following occurrences. It is possible to perform sensitivity analysis to see whether the judgments made had been sound. The gathering and processing of individual judgments ranges from surveys to Delphi, to cross - impact analysis. To reach a consistent outcome, the delphi technique uses a panel of experts who are not permitted to interact in order to avoid each other's influence in their judgments. The group or individual's speculations are then circulated to all other members of the panel, and individual members are then invited to respond by defending or changing their opinions on specific subjects. The process may be repeated as many times as necessary until a common collective decision is made.