ارائه سناریوهای آینده آموزش عالی کشور با استفاده از روش نقشه شناختی فازی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد آینده پژوهی، دانشکده مدیریت علم فناوری و نوآوری دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر

2 دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی صنایع دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی پیشران­های آینده آموزش عالی و تدوین سناریوهای آینده آموزش عالی کشور در افق بیست سال آینده کشور بود و به همین ­منظور فهرست اولیه عوامل کلیدی اثرگذار بر آینده آموزش عالی کشور از طریق مرور ادبیات داخلی و بررسی سناریوهای آموزش عالی برخی از کشورهای خارجی به­دست آمد و ضمن پرسش از تعداد سیزده نفر از خبرگان حوزه آموزش عالی درباره چگونگی اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری این عوامل، محورهای سناریو از بین عوامل کلیدی اثرگذار و دارای عدم قطعیت شناسایی شدند. در گام بعدی با استفاده از فرایند تحلیل حساسیت نقشه شناختی فازی، رفتار عوامل کلیدی در ازای حالات مختلف پیشران­های شناسایی شده سنجیده و روایت­های سناریوها تدوین شد. خروجی این فرایند شامل شناسایی عوامل «جهانی شدن» و «آموزش عالی مبتنی بر تقاضای بازار» به‌عنوان محورهای سناریو و ارائه چهار سناریو برای آینده آموزش عالی کشور بود. در هرکدام از این سناریوها عوامل مختلف اثرگذار بر آینده آموزش عالی بررسی و تشریح شدند که می­توان به مأموریت آموزش عالی، تأمین مالی، کاربرد فناوری، تغییرات جمعیتی، نیاز جامعه به آموزش عالی، جهانی شدن و تقاضای بازار اشاره کرد. ویژگی این پژوهش در ارائه نگاه سناریویی و ایجاد قابلیت تصمیم­گیری و برنامه‌ریزی به اقتضای تصاویر مختلفی است که ممکن است در آینده رخ بدهند. در انتها نیز بر مبنای ویژگی­ها و شرایط حاکم بر هر سناریو، جدولی از سیاست­های پیشنهادی آموزش عالی به اقتضای هر سناریو ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Presenting Iran's future higher education scenarios using fuzzy cognitive maps

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Asghari 1
  • Mohsen Akbarpour Shirazi 2

1 MSc. in Future Studies, Amir Kabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Amir Kabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this research was to identify the future drivers of higher education and to develop Iran’s future higher education scenarios in the horizon of the next 20 years. In order to achieve this goal, the initial list of key factors influencing the future of higher education in the country was obtained through the review of domestic literature and the study of higher education scenarios in some foreign countries. Asking thirteen experts in the field of higher education about how these factors are influence and being influenced, scenario axes were identified among the key factors and uncertainties. In the next step, using the fuzzy cognitive map sensitivity analysis process, the behavior of the key factors was evaluated for the different modes of the identified propulsion, and the narratives of the scenarios were developed. The output of this process involves identifying the factors of "globalization" and "higher education based on market demand" as the scenarios, and providing four scenarios for the future of higher education in the country. Each of these scenarios describes the various factors influencing the future of higher education, including higher education missions, financing, technology application, demographic changes, the need for higher education, globalization, and market demand. The main feature of this research is to provide a scenario look and make decision-making and planning capabilities possible due to different images that may occur in the future. At the end, based on the characteristics and conditions governing each scenario, a table of proposed policies for higher education is provided for each scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scenario Planning
  • Higher Education
  • Fuzzy cognitive maps
  • future study
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