Factors Influencing the Direction of the Science, Research, and Technology Sector in the Seventh Progress Plan and the Scenarios Ahead

Author
Gholamreza Zakersalehi
Professor, Department of Comparative Studies and Innovation in Higher Education, Institute for Research and Planning in Higher Education, Tehran, Iran
10.61838/KMAN.IRPHE.32.2.1
Abstract
The country's scientific community needs to identify the key drivers and barriers of science and technology. Given the importance of contextual and social conditions in which the drivers of science, technology, and innovation emerge, details of these factors can be traced in experts’ opinions, policy documents, and domestic written records. Under such circumstances, drivers, obstacles, and challenges are not considered sudden or accidental phenomena; rather, their traces can be found in specialized discussions and policy documents. The aim of the researcher was to identify the most significant driving and hindering factors and to explain possible future pathways. The research questions were: What drivers, enabling conditions, and capabilities are represented in policy documents from an exploratory perspective? What challenges, crisis-generating factors, and issues are highlighted in these documents? Finally, which of these categories are considered priorities by experts? Data were collected through documentary research, and the analysis involved weighting and prioritization using the Friedman test, followed by scenario development. In this exploratory study, five key documents containing important orientations and insights regarding factors influencing the future of science, research, and technology in Iran were first examined, and relevant statements and propositions were extracted. A questionnaire was then designed based on the literature and the propositions contained in these policy reports and was distributed among a group of higher education specialists. Subsequently, the Friedman test was conducted to rank the factors. The highest-ranked factors were identified and used as the basis for constructing four scenarios concerning the future of higher education, science, and technology. These scenarios were then prioritized according to weighted averages, leading to the identification of the preferred scenario. Using the opinions of a panel of experts, the scenarios were evaluated in terms of feasibility, plausibility, consistency with national realities, advantages, risks, and potential consequences. The findings of this exploratory study, following the identification and prioritization of drivers and barriers and the evaluation of the four proposed scenarios, indicated that the scenario of Strengthening and Stabilization had the highest feasibility and plausibility. The Collaborative Development of Science and Technology scenario ranked second in terms of likelihood of realization and credibility.
Keywords
7th development program
science driver
scenario building
futurology of science.
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 09 March 2025
  • Revise Date 18 October 2025
  • Accept Date 11 October 2025
  • Publish Date 01 July 2026