Estimation of Social Demand for Higher Education in Iran, 2001 - 2009

Estimating socical demand for higer education is one of the major requirements of a sound planning for higher education. This article is an attempt to estimate the social demand for higher edutaion in Iran for the period of 2001-2009 by sex, educational group , type of educational ... and age groups. Using student transiton indexes from primary to secondary school, student flow tables for different chort, and the expected number of students in final high school year on the one hand and number of applicant for University Entrance Examination on the other, the social demand for higher education was estimated. These figures were then adjusted by participation rate in higher education and population estimates for each cohort. Finally, the effects of socio - ecomic and demeographic foctors on social demand for higher education was assessed using regression techniques. The results show a continous decreasing rate of men's pa1iicipation in higher education will continue to grow. Considering lower rate of women paiiicipation in labour market, this might lead to undesirable consequences on the knowledge sto'ck of active human resources. The overal population trend of the country shows that the age combination of the applicants wi 11 change in favor of older cohort. The trends show that the unfullfilled demand for higer education will contribute greater share of the applicants for higher education in the futures, and the demand for studies in hummanities will continue to grow.